Someone in your league is determined to take Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, no matter what, in the first round. It's a draft-damaging strategy that's far too risky in standard leagues.

Coming off perhaps the greatest regular season for an NFL quarterback, Brady threw for an NFL-record 50 touchdowns and 4,806 yards, third-best in a single season, making the time for his selection among the most burning questions heading into the 2008 season. The historical numbers of last season should not cloud your judgment in your draft; paying the going rate of the sixth or seventh overall pick is simply too high.

History 101

Brady should once again be among the leaders in passing statistics in 2008, but a quick look at history shows that not only is another 50-touchdown performance highly unlikely, it's nearly impossible. In fact, even a 30-touchdown season by Brady would buck the historical trend as no quarterback to pass for 40-plus touchdowns in a season has ever exceeded 30 the following year.

1984 - Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins: 48 to 30 (37 percent decrease)

1986 - Dan Marino, Miami Dolphins: 44 to 26 (41 percent decrease)

1999 - Kurt Warner, St. Louis Rams: 41 to 21 (49 percent decrease - 27 percent if extrapolated to 30 scores)

2004 - Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: 49 to 28 (43 percent decrease)

Combined average reduction: 37 percent

Note: Warner's 21 touchdowns in 11 games extrapolate to 30 in 16 games. In 2000, Warner missed five games due to a broken hand.

Following that trend, Brady is projected to throw 31 touchdown passes in 2008, up from his career average of 26 per season from 2002-06. While those may sound like impressive numbers, there's no need to spend a first-round selection on Brady or any top-tier quarterback, as passing touchdowns and yardage are both plentiful throughout the draft. Last season, 10 quarterbacks threw more than 25 touchdown passes and nine quarterbacks passed for better than 3,500 yards.

Alternatives

Since passing stats are relatively easy to acquire over the course of the season, spending a first-round pick on any quarterback is a potential blueprint for disaster. An owner could easily navigate a successful season by investing a middle-round pick on a number of undervalued options. St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger, Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb and Denver quarterback Jay Cutler are all solid candidates; they are being taken between the sixth and eighth rounds.

Bypassing a quarterback during the first three or four rounds gives owners an opportunity to assemble a deep squad of running backs; it may even provide enough depth to afford a potential trade if their quarterback selection does not pay dividends. Even those in 12-team leagues may have multiple free-agent quarterbacks matched up against a poor defensive secondary most weeks. Last season, 33 different quarterbacks had a 300-yard passing game - an eye-opening stat considering the NFL is a 32-team league. That simply further illustrates how passing production can be found throughout the season; thus, spending a first-round selection on Brady is simply unwarranted.

Fantasy football outlook

Your first-round pick should be a safe one. For those in a position to draft Brady in the early to mid-first round, there are going to be more viable options on the board such as St. Louis running back Steven Jackson, Indianapolis running back Joseph Addai, San Francisco running back Frank Gore or Philadelphia running back Brian Westbrook. Remember, consistency at running back is the lifeblood of almost every successful fantasy football squad.

In 2007, only 10 running backs had five or more 100-yard rushing games and only seven running backs exceeded 10 touchdowns on the season. Most likely, all of these players will be gone after the second round, while plenty of upper-tier QBs should still be available. With solid rushing statistics spread thin and passing statistics relatively abundant, there is no reason to consider selecting Brady before the latter stages of Round 2. At that point he might be a worthwhile gamble if there is no high-upside No. 2 running back option to be had. However, a third-round selection should fall more in line with his expected value.