
Cincinnati Bengals wideout Chad Johnson (ankle) is widely considered a No. 1 fantasy receiver. According to KFFL's average draft position tool, Johnson is currently being selected in the middle of the third round.
The question is, is Johnson worth spending a third-round pick on and are there other players who offer more value being drafted after him?
During the past two seasons, Johnson has put up excellent overall statistics, amassing 180 receptions for 2,809 yards and 15 touchdowns. In leagues that use total points as their scoring format, those are the type of numbers owners look for in a No. 1 receiver. When taking a closer look at how the numbers break down, Johnson may be overvalued in leagues that use a head-to-head format.
Consistently inconsistent
Consider this: the 15 trips to the end zone Johnson has made during the past two seasons have come in only eight games, which leaves 24 times in the past 32 games he's failed to score. That means Johnson has scored in only 25 percent of the team's games during that span.
Looking at it from another angle, in the eight games Johnson scored, he averaged 7.6 receptions, 143 yards and 1.9 touchdowns per game. In the other 24 games, he averaged just five receptions for 69 yards per game and no scores. In five out of the eight games he reached the end zone, Johnson scored multiple touchdowns. Johnson clearly puts up numbers in bunches, but this kind of week-to-week inconsistency can really sink a fantasy team in head-to-head formats.
Superior options?
So, which players may offer better weekly consistency and are currently being drafted after Johnson? One player that has very similar overall numbers is St. Louis Rams receiver Torry Holt. Holt has been the next receiver selected after Johnson with an ADP of roughly three spots lower. During the past two seasons, Holt has accounted for 186 receptions, 2,377 yards and 17 touchdowns, reaching the end zone in 14 out of 32 games. That means Holt scored in almost 44 percent of his games the past two seasons.
While Holt has not had some of the monster weeks Johnson has, he tends to spread his stats more evenly. While there may be weeks when Johnson is the primary reason you win games, having Holt's consistency could win you more games over the long haul.
Another player with similar overall numbers to Johnson is Denver Broncos wideout Brandon Marshall (arm). In 2007, Marshall recorded 102 catches, 1,325 yards and seven scores. Marshall's seven touchdowns came in six games, meaning he scored in two more contests than Johnson last season. Currently Marshall is being selected late in the fourth round, approximately 18 picks after Johnson. In a league that uses a point-per-reception, head-to-head format Marshall represents comparable (if not superior) value a round and a half later than Johnson.
Two other intriguing options are Green Bay Packers receiver Greg Jennings and New York Giants wideout Plaxico Burress. While neither player can boast the overall numbers Johnson can, both do a nice job of spreading their statistics over several games.
During the past two seasons, Burress has reached the end zone 22 times in 19 different games - scoring in 61 percent of games played. Jennings distributed his scoring even better than Burress in 2007. He played in only 13 games last season but was able to score 12 times. Those 12 touchdowns were spread over 10 games, meaning Jennings scored in almost 77 percent of the games he played in 2007.
Both players battled though injuries last season, hampering their overall numbers. However, if Burress and Jennings are able to stay healthy in 2008, fantasy owners have to love the way they have been able to score on a week-to-week basis. Plus, both should be available after Johnson, with Burress coming off the board roughly six picks after "Ocho Cinco" and Jennings another half-dozen selections after that.
Fantasy football outlook
While Johnson's overall numbers are superior to these other receivers, his weekly production fluctuates dramatically, causing fantasy owners to reach for the Excedrin. If you play in an total points format, Johnson is still a solid pick sometime during the third round. Conversely, in a head-to-head format, these other receivers can offer better value later on in your draft, and value is a key ingredient in putting together a championship fantasy football team.